Prediction Model for Annual Variation in Total Pollen by Allergenic Trees in Korean Cities.

PURPOSE: Pollen forecasting systems can provide information for coping with respiratory allergies. They estimate daily pollen production, dispersal, deposition, and removal based on daily weather conditions to predict daily pollen concentrations and provide allergy warnings. As of 2023, the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) provides 2-day forecast of allergenic pollens. However, unlike these models, long-term analysis of annual observations of tree pollen reveal annual variations. Therefore, in this study, we aimed to develop annual prediction models for allergenic tree pollens based on long-term multi-site pollen and meteorological data. METHODS: Daily pollen concentrations were observed using Hirst-type volumetric spore traps at nine sites in Korea from 1998 to 2021, and daily weather data from the closest KMA stations were utilized. Models were developed to predict the seasonal pollen integral of seven tree species based on monthly mean temperature, wind speed, and total precipitation using three variable selection methods: 1) the t-test based key variable screening followed by linear regression with stepwise procedure (TM), 2) direct linear regression with stepwise procedure from the full variable model (FM), and 3) LASSO regression from the full variable model (LM). RESULTS: Data obtained during 1998-2017 and 2018=2021 were utilized for model development and validation, respectively. The root mean squared error, mean absolute error, mean error, and coefficient of determination (R²) revealed that the TM models were best suited for actual forecasting, even though R² in the TM model was lower than those of the FM and LM models. CONCLUSIONS: The annual variation model in this study can be integrated with the daily pollen forecast model by controlling the annual pollen potential, and the accuracy of the daily forecast can be improved accordingly.

Annual Change in Fungal Concentrations and Allergic Sensitization Rates to Alternaria and Cladosporium in Korea During the Period 1998-2022.

PURPOSE: Atmospheric fungi are associated with respiratory allergies in humans, and some fungal spores can cause allergic diseases. Environmental and biological factors influence the concentrations of atmospheric spores. In this study, we evaluated the climate change-induced annual variations in fungal spore concentrations and allergic sensitization rates in the Seoul Metropolitan Area over a period of 25 years. METHODS: Fungal spores and pollen were obtained from Hanyang University Seoul and Guri Hospitals; they were identified and counted for 25 years (1998-2022). The study participants included patients who underwent tests for allergic diseases in both hospitals. Their allergenic sensitization rates were determined via allergic skin prick and serum tests, after which their sensitization rates to allergenic fungi and pollens were calculated. The daily climatic variables were obtained from the Korea Meteorological Administration. RESULTS: The total annual atmospheric fungal concentrations decreased in both areas during the period. Simultaneously, we recruited 21,394 patients with allergies (asthma, 1,550; allergic rhinitis, 5,983; and atopic dermatitis, 5,422) from Seoul and Guri Hospitals for allergenic fungal sensitization evaluations over the period. The allergenic fungal sensitization rates decreased annually in both areas over that time `+(Alternaria [3.5%] and Cladosporium [4.4%] in 1998; Alternaria [0.2%] and Cladosporium [0.2%] in 2022). In contrast, the annual pollen concentrations increased with the sensitization rates to pollen in children. CONCLUSIONS: The atmospheric fungal concentrations decreased annually, with allergic sensitization rate decreasing over the period of 25 years. Allergenic fungal sporulation could decrease with climate changes, such as desertification and drought. Extended monitoring periods and further large-scale studies are required to confirm the causality and to evaluate the impact of climate change.

Forecast for Pollen Allergy: A Review from Field Observation to Modeling and Services in Korea.

Pollen, a major causal agent of respiratory allergy, is mainly affected by weather conditions. In Korea, pollen and weather data are collected by the national observation network. Forecast models and operational services are developed and provided based on the national pollen data base. Using the pollen risk forecast information will help patients with respiratory allergy to improve their lives. Changes in temperature and CO2 concentration by climate change affect the growth of plants and their capacity of producing more allergenic pollens, which should be considered in making the future strategy on treating allergy patients.

Erratum: Allergenic Pollen Calendar in Korea Based on Probability Distribution Models and Up-to-Date Observations.

This corrects the article on p. 259 in vol. 12, PMID: 32009321.

Allergenic Pollen Calendar in Korea Based on Probability Distribution Models and Up-to-Date Observations.

PURPOSE: The pollen calendar is the simplest forecasting method for pollen concentrations. As pollen concentrations are liable to seasonal variations due to alterations in climate and land-use, it is necessary to update the pollen calendar using recent data. To attenuate the impact of considerable temporal and spatial variability in pollen concentrations on the pollen calendar, it is essential to employ a new methodology for its creation. METHODS: A pollen calendar was produced in Korea using data from recent observations, and a new method for creating the calendar was proposed, considering both risk levels and temporal resolution of pollen concentrations. A probability distribution was used for smoothing concentrations and determining risk levels. Airborne pollen grains were collected between 2007 and 2017 at 8 stations; 13 allergenic pollens, including those of alder, Japanese cedar, birch, hazelnut, oak, elm, pine, ginkgo, chestnut, grasses, ragweed, mugwort and Japanese hop, were identified from the collected grains. RESULTS: The concentrations of each pollen depend on locations and seasons due to large variability in species distribution and their environmental condition. In the descending order of concentration, pine, oak and Japanese hop pollens were found to be the most common in Korea. The pollen concentrations were high in spring and autumn, and those of oak and Japanese hop were probably the most common cause of allergy symptoms in spring and autumn, respectively. High Japanese cedar pollen counts were observed in Jeju, while moderate concentrations were in Jeonju, Gwangju and Busan. CONCLUSIONS: A new methodology for the creation of a pollen calendar was developed to attenuate the impact of large temporal and spatial variability in pollen concentrations. This revised calendar should be available to the public and allergic patients to prevent aggravation of pollen allergy.

A biology-driven receptor model for daily pollen allergy risk in Korea based on Weibull probability density function.

Pollen is an important cause of respiratory allergic reactions. As individual sanitation has improved, allergy risk has increased, and this trend is expected to continue due to climate change. Atmospheric pollen concentration is highly influenced by weather conditions. Regression analysis and modeling of the relationships between airborne pollen concentrations and weather conditions were performed to analyze and forecast pollen conditions. Traditionally, daily pollen concentration has been estimated using regression models that describe the relationships between observed pollen concentrations and weather conditions. These models were able to forecast daily concentrations at the sites of observation, but lacked broader spatial applicability beyond those sites. To overcome this limitation, an integrated modeling scheme was developed that is designed to represent the underlying processes of pollen production and distribution. A maximum potential for airborne pollen is first determined using the Weibull probability density function. Then, daily pollen concentration is estimated using multiple regression models. Daily risk grade levels are determined based on the risk criteria used in Korea. The mean percentages of agreement between the observed and estimated levels were 81.4-88.2 % and 92.5-98.5 % for oak and Japanese hop pollens, respectively. The new models estimated daily pollen risk more accurately than the original statistical models because of the newly integrated biological response curves. Although they overestimated seasonal mean concentration, they did not simulate all of the peak concentrations. This issue would be resolved by adding more variables that affect the prevalence and internal maturity of pollens.

A Six-Year Study on the Changes in Airborne Pollen Counts and Skin Positivity Rates in Korea: 2008-2013.

PURPOSE: The occurrence of pollen allergy is subject to exposure to pollen, which shows regional and temporal variations. We evaluated the changes in pollen counts and skin positivity rates for 6 years, and explored the correlation between their annual rates of change. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We assessed the number of pollen grains collected in Seoul, and retrospectively reviewed the results of 4442 skin-prick tests conducted at the Severance Hospital Allergy-Asthma Clinic from January 1, 2008 to December 31, 2013. RESULTS: For 6 years, the mean monthly total pollen count showed two peaks, one in May and the other in September. Pollen count for grasses also showed the same trend. The pollen counts for trees, grasses, and weeds changed annually, but the changes were not significant. The annual skin positivity rates in response to pollen from grasses and weeds increased significantly over the 6 years. Among trees, the skin positivity rates in response to pollen from walnut, popular, elm, and alder significantly increased over the 6 years. Further, there was a significant correlation between the annual rate of change in pollen count and the rate of change in skin positivity rate for oak and hop Japanese. CONCLUSION: The pollen counts and skin positivity rates should be monitored, as they have changed annually. Oak and hop Japanese, which showed a significant correlation with the annual rate of change in pollen count and the rate of change in skin positivity rate over the 6 years may be considered the major allergens in Korea.